Republicans trail Democrats by 21,000 in county Republicans retain slim lead in Victor Valley

From vvdailynews.com

A year after Democratic voters surpassed Republican voters in San Bernardino County, the blue party’s lead has swelled to 21,397 more voters registered as Democrats than Republicans, according to the county Registrar of Voters.

The countywide swing toward Democrats represents a dramatic shift in the county, where two years ago Republicans outnumbered Democrats by more than 34,000. In the Victor Valley, however, Republicans still slightly edge out Democrats — by a slim 1,660 voters — with Republicans comprising 39.3 percent of registered voters in Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia and Victorville.

In Victorville and Adelanto, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10 to 24 percentage points, while the GOP has the majority in Hesperia and Apple Valley by 5 to 17 percentage points, respectively. “We’ve been lucky in the Victor Valley, no matter how you cut it we’ve stayed fairly consistent in most of our nonpartisan races, school boards, city and town councils, they are predominately dominated by Republicans,” said Pat Orr, 1st District caucus chair of the San Bernardino County Republican Party. “That’s the way people prefer it because they want their hometown government to be conservative.” The Democratic Party declared the county blue for the first time in more than six years when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 2,800 voters in October 2008.

Democrats secured a 20,000-voter lead over Republicans by August. “If you look at the demographics of the county, there is no reason for San Bernardino to be a red county, and it’s not anymore,” said Carol Robb, chair of the San Bernardino County Democrat Party. “It’s working people, it’s people with color, there aren’t that many really rich people or even semi-rich people in San Bernardino County. It’s just made up of good hard-working ordinary people and the Democrat party appeals to them.”

This month Republican leaders are embarking on an aggressive registration campaign to gear up for the June primaries. They have attributed their party’s local decline to a faltering voter registration program, while Democrats set up new local clubs and focused on registration drives and booths at public events.

President Barack Obama’s election attracted swarms of new Democratic voters, said Robb, who said last year she helped county residents in their 50s and 60s register for the first time. However, Orr said the 2008 election was driven by “droves of people that probably won’t come out to vote ever again.” The shift to a blue county also follows a wave of corruption allegations in county offices. Former 1st District Supervisor, Assessor and Republican Party Chair Bill Postmus is facing nine felony charges related to embezzlement and drug possession. In a separate civil suit, county supervisors allege Postmus used his post as county Assessor to run a political operation and raise funds for the Republican Party.

Registration has shifted to favor Democrats in the 2nd and 4th districts, where Republican county supervisors Paul Biane and Gary Ovitt are up for re-election. All six countywide elected offices are up for election, including district attorney, auditor controller recorder-clerk, sheriff, treasurer-tax collector, assessor and superintendent of schools. “ We also have a real shot at a couple of Assembly seats where there’s been dramatic shifts in voter registration,” Robb said, such as the 36th District currently held by Assemblyman Steve Knight, Palmdale, who represents Victorville and Adelanto.

The deciding factor in 2010 local, state and federal elections could be independent voters, according to Orr. Just over 18 percent of voters in the Victor Valley are registered as nonpartisan. “I’m not sure the registration really matters a hoot,” Orr said, with more than 140,000 voters registered as nonpartisan countywide. “It’s who you put up.”